Will Drake Exchange Kendrick Lamar at No. 1 at the Billboard 200?

The Contenders is a midweek column that appears at artists aiming for the highest of the Billboard charts, and the methods in the back of their efforts. This week, for the impending Billboard 200 dated Mar. 1, we take a look at the possibilities of Drake’s and PartyNextDoor’s new full-length teamup to knock the previous’s contemporary rap opponent out of the chart’s most sensible spot.  

PartyNextDoor & Drake, $ome $exy $ongs 4 U (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): Drake hasn’t been in a position to seek out a large number of wins since taking the consensus loss in his culture-conquering 2024 pork with Kendrick Lamar – the after-effects of which proceed to permeate the tradition on a weekly foundation just about a 12 months later, with Lamar’s signature diss music “Now not Like Us” not too long ago profitable 5 Grammys and serving as the center piece second for the most-watched Tremendous Bowl halftime display in historical past. However Drake could also be due for a reasonably large W in a while, following the discharge of his first full-length album since 2023’s For All of the Canines – the Valentine’s Day-released, R&B-focused $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, a teamup with longtime OVO labelmate and collaborator PartyNextDoor.  

The 21-track effort from the 2 Toronto natives unsurprisingly blanketed the Spotify Day-to-day Most sensible Songs USA and Apple Song real-time charts upon its launch, even breaking the file for the largest R&B/soul album in Apple Song’s historical past through first-day streams international, and stays a big presence on each listings close to the tip of the monitoring week. Whilst lots of the tracks have receded in day by day streams because the set dropped, a pair have persevered to develop, together with the poppier mid-album cuts “Die Attempting” and “Nokia,” the latter of which has additionally spent the vast majority of the week atop the iTunes real-time chart. The set could also be being offered on CD by way of the album’s personal web site, with 3 variants of the CD case in the stores. 

Despite the fact that the album would possibly no longer fit the first-week numbers of a few previous chart-conquering Drake initiatives – together with the 404,000 first-week devices posted through 2023’s Her Loss, his most up-to-date full-length collaboration, along celebrity rapper 21 Savage – it kind of feels most probably to go back The Boy to No. 1, tying him with Jay-Z for essentially the most Billboard 200 No. 1 albums of any rapper (with 14) and no less than briefly silence critics who declared him “accomplished” following the feud. And naturally, with Lamar’s GNX these days occupying the chart’s most sensible spot, it would give him a much-needed triumph within the headlines over his ceaselessly victory-lapping foe.  

Kendrick Lamar, GNX (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Even supposing Drake takes the Billboard 200’s most sensible spot subsequent week, don’t be expecting Kendrick Lamar to vanish from the chart within the weeks after his Tremendous Bowl efficiency. In truth, in his first complete monitoring week following that globally buzzed-about Feb. 9 display, Lamar’s streaming numbers will have to be much more tough, with carried out hits from his 2024 blockbuster GNX like “Squabble Up,” “TV Off” and the SZA-featuring “Luther” proceeding to be ate up en masse, and the latter even threatening Lamar’s personal “Now not Like Us” to take over the No. 1 spot at the Billboard Scorching 100 subsequent week. 

May it probably stave off $ome $exy $ongs in that set’s debut week, giving K-Dot yet another KO on this now-largely one-sided combat? It doesn’t appear too most probably, given the herbal disadvantages the 12-track GNX faces when it comes to overall streams when in comparison to the 21-track $$$4U – and the truth that the set will have to slide when it comes to gross sales subsequent week, after the set’s bodily launch on cassette, vinyl and CD structure two Fridays in the past (Feb. 7) helped it promote over 100,000 copies for the monitoring week finishing Feb. 13. Nonetheless, with such a lot of of its tracks reconfirmed as streaming monsters, the album is most probably to hang out the chart’s higher tier within the weeks to return — that means lets very simply see GNX go back to No. 1 for a 3rd time in a long run slow-release week.  

Sabrina Wood worker, Brief n’ Candy (Island): Talking of 2024 blockbusters – any other person who’s spent a couple of weeks atop the Billboard 200 and hung across the most sensible 10 for lots of months since will have to be due for some giant features subsequent week. On Friday (Feb. 14), pop celebrity Sabrina Wood worker launched the deluxe version of her four-week No. 1 Brief n’ Candy, increasing the 12-track set to 17 — with 4 totally new songs, and a redo of the set’s Scorching 100-topping “Please Please Please,” that includes visitor vocals from nation icon Dolly Parton.  

The combo of the unique set’s sustained streaming efficiency – it’s held within the decrease part of the highest 10 at the Billboard 200 for the entire of February – and the spice up it will have to get from the brand new deluxe version will have to make it one of the crucial most sensible contenders at the chart subsequent week. The bonus cuts have all observed cast streaming bows, with “Busy Lady” particularly showing to be one thing of a breakout hit, and the deluxe model of the album will have to additionally do neatly in bodily gross sales, with the set to be had on her webstore in each azure- and pearl-colored vinyl, and on lipstick-marked CD.  

IN THE MIX 

The Lumineers, Automated (Dualtone): The sector-folk stars’ first new album since 2022’s Brightside doesn’t somewhat come with the radio hits of earlier units, however does arrive throughout a time the place a brand new wave of stomp-clappers led through Noah Kahan have reintroduced their signature sound to the mainstream – and is in the stores in 8 vinyl variants, together with a signed version. Every of The Lumineers’ 4 earlier albums reached the Billboard 200’s most sensible 10, regardless that with streaming not going to supply a ton of lend a hand, the set will wish to promote somewhat neatly to increase that streak to 5.